The refinery of the future.

Fossil fuels-coal, oil and gas-supply most of the world's energy and also form the basis of many products essential for everyday life. Their use is the largest contributor to the carbon dioxide emissions that drive global climate change, prompting joint efforts to find renewable alternatives that might enable a carbon-neutral society by as early as 2050. There are clear paths for renewable electricity to replace fossil-fuel-based energy, but the transport fuels and chemicals produced in oil refineries will still be needed. We can attempt to close the carbon cycle associated with their use by electrifying refinery processes and by changing the raw materials that go into a refinery from fossils fuels to carbon dioxide for making hydrocarbon fuels and to agricultural and municipal waste for making chemicals and polymers. We argue that, with sufficient long-term commitment and support, the science and technology for such a completely fossil-free refinery, delivering the products required after 2050 (less fuels, more chemicals), could be developed. This future refinery will require substantially larger areas and greater mineral resources than is the case at present and critically depends on the capacity to generate large amounts of renewable energy for hydrogen production and carbon dioxide capture.

Assessment of the in situ biomethanation potential of a deep aquifer used for natural gas storage.

The dihydrogen (H2) sector is undergoing development and will require massive storage solutions. To minimize costs, the conversion of underground geological storage sites, such as deep aquifers, used for natural gas storage into future underground hydrogen storage sites is the favored scenario. However, these sites contain microorganisms capable of consuming H2, mainly sulfate reducers and methanogens. Methanogenesis is, therefore expected but its intensity must be evaluated. Here, in a deep aquifer used for underground geological storage, 17 sites were sampled, with low sulfate concentrations ranging from 21.9 to 197.8 µM and a slow renewal of formation water. H2-selected communities mainly were composed of the families Methanobacteriaceae and Methanothermobacteriaceae and the genera Desulfovibrio, Thermodesulfovibrio, and Desulforamulus. Experiments were done under different conditions, and sulfate reduction, as well as methanogenesis, were demonstrated in the presence of a H2 or H2/CO2 (80/20) gas phase, with or without calcite/site rock. These metabolisms led to an increase in pH up to 10.2 under certain conditions (without CO2). The results suggest competition for CO2 between lithoautotrophs and carbonate mineral precipitation, which could limit microbial H2 consumption.

Pore structure characterization and its influence on aqueous phase trapping damage in tight gas sandstone reservoirs.

Aqueous phase trapping (APT), which is one of the most prominent damages, seriously restricts the natural gas production in tight gas sandstone with low permeability. Pore size and microscopic pore structures are the most important factors to determine the water blocking damage. In this paper, 9 core samples from tight gas sandstone with various physical properties were employed, and the pore size distribution (PSD) of the core samples were investigated by high pressure mercury intrusion tests (HPMI). Results showed that the porosity of core samples ranges from 5.68% to 13.7%, and the permeability ranges from 0.00456 to 7.86 mD, which is a typical tight reservoir with strong heterogeneity. According to the HPMI capillary curve, the cores can be divided into two types: Type I and Type II, and the pore sizes of type I are larger than that of type II. Fractal distributions were obtained using HPMI data to further determine the pore structure characteristics of tight reservoirs. The pore structures of tight sandstones display the multifractal fractal feature: D1 corresponding to macro-pores, and D2 corresponding to fractal dimension of micro-pores. Furthermore, APT damage was determined by the permeability recovery ratios (Kr) after gas flooding tests. The correlation of Kr and PSD and fractal dimensions were jointly analyzed in tight gas sandstone. Although positive correlations between pore size parameters and the permeability recovery ratios were observed with relatively weak correlations, for those core samples with very close permeability, pore size parameters (both permeability and PSD) is inadequate in clarifying this damage. The fractal dimension can well describe the complexity and heterogeneity of flow channels in pores, which can become the determining factor to distinguish the flow capacity of tight sandstone. The D2 for samples of type I and type II exhibited a good negative relation with Kr with a correlation coefficient of 0.9878 and 0.7723, respectively. The significance of this finding is that for tight gas sandstone, fractal dimensions, especially the small pore fractal dimension (D2), can be used to predict the possible APT damage very well.

Simultaneous electrocoagulation and E-peroxone coupled with ultrafiltration membrane for shale gas produced water treatment.

Membrane fouling caused by the organics-coated particles was the main obstacle for the highly efficient shale gas produced water (SGPW) treatment and recycling. In this study, a novel hybrid electrocoagulation (EC) and E-peroxone process coupled with UF (ECP-UF) process was proposed to examine the efficacy and elucidate the mechanism for UF fouling mitigation in assisting SGPW reuse. Compared to the TMP (transmembrane pressure) increase of -15 kPa in the EC-UF process, TMP in ECP-UF system marginally increased to -1.4 kPa for 3 filtration cycles under the current density of 15 mA/cm2. Both the total fouling index and hydraulically irreversible fouling index of the ECP-UF process were significantly lower than those of EC-UF process. According to the extended Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek theory, the potential barriers was the highest for ECP-UF processes due to the substantial increase of the acid-base interaction energy in ECP-UF process, which was well consistent with the TMP and SEM results. Turbidity and TOC of ECP-UF process were 63.6% and 45.8% lower than those of EC-UF process, respectively. According to the MW distribution, the variations of compounds and their relative contents were probably due to the oxidation and decomposing products of the macromolecular organics. The number of aromatic compound decreased, while the number of open-chain compounds (i.e., alkenes, alkanes and alcohols) increased in the permeate of ECP-UF process. Notably, the substantial decrease in the relative abundance of di-phthalate compounds was attributed to the high reactivity of these compounds with ·OH. Mechanism study indicated that ECP could realize the simultaneous coagulation, H2O2 generation and activation by O3, facilitating the enhancement of ·OH and Alb production and therefore beneficial for the improved water quality and UF fouling mitigation. Therefore, the ECP-UF process emerges as a high-efficient and space-saving approach, yielding a synergistic effect in mitigating UF fouling for SGPW recycling.

Unaddressed Uncertainties When Scaling Regional Aircraft Emission Surveys to Basin Emission Estimates.

Wide-area aerial methods provide comprehensive screening of methane emissions from oil and gas (O & G) facilities in production basins. Emission detections ("plumes") from these studies are also frequently scaled to the basin level, but little is known regarding the uncertainties during scaling. This study analyzed an aircraft field study in the Denver-Julesburg basin to quantify how often plumes identified maintenance events, using a geospatial inventory of 12,629 O & G facilities. Study partners (7 midstream and production operators) provided the timing and location of 5910 maintenance events during the 6 week study period. Results indicated three substantial uncertainties with potential bias that were unaddressed in prior studies. First, plumes often detect maintenance events, which are large, short-duration, and poorly estimated by aircraft methods: 9.2 to 46% (38 to 52%) of plumes on production were likely known maintenance events. Second, plumes on midstream facilities were both infrequent and unpredictable, calling into question whether these estimates were representative of midstream emissions. Finally, 4 plumes attributed to O & G (19% of emissions detected by aircraft) were not aligned with any O & G location, indicating that the emissions had drifted downwind of some source. It is unclear how accurately aircraft methods estimate this type of plume; in this study, it had material impact on emission estimates. While aircraft surveys remain a powerful tool for identifying methane emissions on O & G facilities, this study indicates that additional data inputs, e.g., detailed GIS data, a more nuanced analysis of emission persistence and frequency, and improved sampling strategies are required to accurately scale plume estimates to basin emissions.

Identification and health risk evaluation of soil contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons at shale gas extraction sites based on positive matrix factorization.

The impact of shale gas extraction on surrounding environmental media remains unclear. In this study, the current state of contamination by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are high-frequency contaminants of shale gas, was investigated in the soil surrounding emerging shale gas development sites. The source analysis of PAHs was conducted in the soils of shale gas extraction sites using positive matrix factorization (PMF). The health risk assessment (HRA) was calculated for ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation exposures, and the priority sources of PAHs in the soil were jointly identified by PMF and HRA to refine the contribution level of different individual PAHs to the carcinogenic risk. The results showed that both Sichuan and Chongqing mining site soils were contaminated to different degrees. Shale gas extraction has an impact on the surrounding soil, and the highest contributing source of PAHs in the mining site soil of Sichuan was anthropogenic activity, accounting for 31.6%, whereas that in the mining site soil of Chongqing was biomass combustion and mixed automobile combustion, accounting for 35.9%. At the two mining sites in Sichuan and Chongqing, none of the three exposure pathways (ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation) posed a carcinogenic risk to children, whereas the dermal exposure pathway posed a carcinogenic risk to adults. Health risk assessments based on specific source assignments indicate that when managing soil pollution, the control of fossil fuel combustion and vehicular emissions should be prioritized.

Reliable sustainable management strategies for flare gas recovery: technical, environmental, modeling, and economic assessment: a comprehensive review.

The gas flaring network is an inseparable constituent commonly present in most of the oil and gas refineries and petrochemical facilities conferring reliable operational parameters. The improper disposal of burn-off gases improperly results in environmental problems and loss of economic resources. In this regard, waste to energy transforming nexus, in accord with the "carbon neutrality" term, has potentially emerged as a reasonable pathway to preserve our planet. In a transdisciplinary manner, the present review article deeply outlines the different up-to-date strategies developed to recover the emitted gases (flaring minimization) into different value-added products. To analyze the recovery potential of flare gases, different technologies, and decision-making factors have been critically reviewed to find the best recovery methods. We recommend more straightforward recovery methods despite lower profits. In this regard, electricity generation seems to be an appropriate option for application in small amounts of flaring. However, several flare gas utilization processes such as syngas manufacturing, reinjection of gas into petroleum reservoirs, and production of natural gas liquid (NGL) are also recommended as options because of their economic significance, technological viability (both onshore and offshore), and environmental benefits. Moreover, the adopted computational multi-scale data assimilation for predictive modeling of flare gas recovery scenarios has been systematically reviewed, summarized, and inspected.

Prioritizing Organic Pollutants for Shale Gas Exploitation: Life Cycle Environmental Risk Assessments in China and the US.

Environmental impacts associated with shale gas exploitation have been historically underestimated due to neglecting to account for the production or the release of end-of-pipe organic pollutants. Here, we assessed the environmental impacts of shale gas production in China and the United States using life cycle assessment. Through data mining, we compiled literature information on organic pollutants in flowback and produced water (FPW), followed by assessments using USEtox to evaluate end-of-pipe risks. Results were incorporated to reveal the life cycle risks associated with shale gas exploitation in both countries. China exhibited higher environmental impacts than the US during the production phase. Substantially different types of organic compounds were observed in the FPW between two countries. Human carcinogenic and ecological toxicity attributed to organics in FPW was 3 orders of magnitude higher than that during the production phase in the US. Conversely, in China, end-of-pipe organics accounted for approximately 52%, 1%, and 47% of the overall human carcinogenic, noncarcinogenic, and ecological impacts, respectively. This may be partially limited by the quantitative data available. While uncertainties exist associated with data availability, our study highlights the significance of integrating impacts from shale gas production to end-of-pipe pollution for comprehensive environmental risk assessments.

Modelling spatial & temporal variability of air pollution in an area of unconventional natural gas operations.

Despite the growing unconventional natural gas production industry in northeastern British Columbia, Canada, few studies have explored the air quality implications on human health in nearby communities. Researchers who have worked with pregnant women in this area have found higher levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the indoor air of their homes associated with higher density and closer proximity to gas wells. To inform ongoing exposure assessments, this study develops land use regression (LUR) models to predict ambient air pollution at the homes of pregnant women by using natural gas production activities as predictor variables. Using the existing monitoring network, the models were developed for three temporal scales for 12 air pollutants. The models predicting monthly, bi-annual, and annual mean concentrations explained 23%-94%, 54%-94%, and 73%-91% of the variability in air pollutant concentrations, respectively. These models can be used to investigate associations between prenatal exposure to air pollutants associated with natural gas production and adverse health outcomes in northeastern British Columbia.

Temporal Variation and Persistence of Methane Emissions from Shallow Water Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.

Two-stage thermal pyrolysis of plastic solid waste: Set-up and operative conditions investigation for gaseous fuel production.

In response to the escalating global challenge of mounting plastic waste and the imperative to adopt more sustainable practices for resource utilization, our study focuses on the utilization of plastic solid waste (PSW) through a two-stage thermal pyrolysis process. This aims to demonstrate its potential as a high-performance alternative to existing two-stage catalytic pyrolysis methods. The experimentation involved processing real scrap PSW material in a lab-scale batch set-up, emphasizing optimizing residence time in the cracking reactor to maximize gas yield and its lower heating value (LHV). The study underscores the advantages of the employed two-stage thermal pyrolysis apparatus through a comparative analysis with established set-up dedicated to maximizing gas yield. Once the operative conditions were explored, resulting pyrolysis products underwent detailed characterization to assess their suitability as a sustainable fuel source. The study also presents a practical application of the produced gaseous fuel, envisioning its combustion in an internal combustion engine (ICE), known for its flexibility regarding fuel properties. This application is demonstrated through a simulation conducted in Unisim Design©. The successful processing of real PSW material in the two-stage lab-scale experimental set-up showcased optimal gas yield achievements (>65 % w/w) with an LHV (∼41 MJ/kg), comparable to that of natural gas. This emphasizes the potential of these sustainable alternatives to replace fossil fuels, especially in the context of ICE applications. The integration of the pyrolysis plant with an ICE demonstrated promising prospects for generating electricity in the transportation sector and facilitating thermal power for heat integration in pyrolysis reactors.

Indoor Air Sources of Outdoor Air Pollution: Health Consequences, Policy, and Recommendations: An Official American Thoracic Society Workshop Report.

Indoor sources of air pollution worsen indoor and outdoor air quality. Thus, identifying and reducing indoor pollutant sources would decrease both indoor and outdoor air pollution, benefit public health, and help address the climate crisis. As outdoor sources come under regulatory control, unregulated indoor sources become a rising percentage of the problem. This American Thoracic Society workshop was convened in 2022 to evaluate this increasing proportion of indoor contributions to outdoor air quality. The workshop was conducted by physicians and scientists, including atmospheric and aerosol scientists, environmental engineers, toxicologists, epidemiologists, regulatory policy experts, and pediatric and adult pulmonologists. Presentations and discussion sessions were centered on 1) the generation and migration of pollutants from indoors to outdoors, 2) the sources and circumstances representing the greatest threat, and 3) effective remedies to reduce the health burden of indoor sources of air pollution. The scope of the workshop was residential and commercial sources of indoor air pollution in the United States. Topics included wood burning, natural gas, cooking, evaporative volatile organic compounds, source apportionment, and regulatory policy. The workshop concluded that indoor sources of air pollution are significant contributors to outdoor air quality and that source control and filtration are the most effective measures to reduce indoor contributions to outdoor air. Interventions should prioritize environmental justice: Households of lower socioeconomic status have higher concentrations of indoor air pollutants from both indoor and outdoor sources. We identify research priorities, potential health benefits, and mitigation actions to consider (e.g., switching from natural gas to electric stoves and transitioning to scent-free consumer products). The workshop committee emphasizes the benefits of combustion-free homes and businesses and recommends economic, legislative, and education strategies aimed at achieving this goal.

New generation mixed matrix membrane for CO2 separation: Transition from binary to quaternary mixed matrix membrane.

Contemporary advances in material development associated with membrane gas separation refer to the cost-effective fabrication of high-performance, defect-free mixed matrix membranes (MMMs). For clean energy production, natural gas purification, and CO2 capture from flue gas systems, constituting a functional integration of polymer matrix and inorganic filler materials find huge applications. The broad domain of research and development of MMMs focused on the selection of appropriate materials, inexpensive membrane fabrication, and comparative study with other gas separation membranes for real-world applications. This study addressed a comprehensive review of the advanced MMMs wrapping various facets of membrane material selection; polymer and filler particle morphology and compatibility between the phases and the relevance of several fillers in the assembly of MMMs are analyzed. Further, the research on binary MMMs, their problems, and solutions to overcome these challenges have also been discussed. Finally, the future directions and scope of work on quaternary MMM are scrutinized in the article.

Formaldehyde Exposure Racial Disparities in Southeast Texas.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) exposures during a full year were calculated for different race/ethnicity groups living in Southeast Texas using a chemical transport model tagged to track nine emission categories. Petroleum and industrial emissions were the largest anthropogenic sources of HCHO exposure in Southeast Texas, accounting for 44% of the total HCHO population exposure. Approximately 50% of the HCHO exposures associated with petroleum and industrial sources were directly emitted (primary), while the other 50% formed in the atmosphere (secondary) from precursor emissions of reactive compounds such as ethylene and propylene. Biogenic emissions also formed secondary HCHO that accounted for 11% of the total population-weighted exposure across the study domain. Off-road equipment contributed 3.7% to total population-weighted exposure in Houston, while natural gas combustion contributed 5% in Beaumont. Mobile sources accounted for 3.7% of the total HCHO population exposure, with less than 10% secondary contribution. Exposure disparity patterns changed with the location. Hispanic and Latino residents were exposed to HCHO concentrations +1.75% above average in Houston due to petroleum and industrial sources and natural gas sources. Black and African American residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations +7% above average due to petroleum and industrial sources, off-road equipment, and food cooking. Asian residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations that were +2.5% above average due to HCHO associated with petroleum and industrial sources, off-road vehicles, and food cooking. White residents were exposed to below average HCHO concentrations in all domains because their homes were located further from primary HCHO emission sources. Given the unique features of the exposure disparities in each region, tailored solutions should be developed by local stakeholders. Potential options to consider in the development of those solutions include modifying processes to reduce emissions, installing control equipment to capture emissions, or increasing the distance between industrial sources and residential neighborhoods.

Climate Impacts of Hydrogen and Methane Emissions Can Considerably Reduce the Climate Benefits across Key Hydrogen Use Cases and Time Scales.

Recent investments in "clean" hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels are driven by anticipated climate benefits. However, most climate benefit calculations do not adequately account for all climate warming emissions and impacts over time. This study reanalyzes a previously published life cycle assessment as an illustrative example to show how the climate impacts of hydrogen deployment can be far greater than expected when including the warming effects of hydrogen emissions, observed methane emission intensities, and near-term time scales; this reduces the perceived climate benefits upon replacement of fossil fuel technologies. For example, for blue (natural gas with carbon capture) hydrogen pathways, the inclusion of upper-end hydrogen and methane emissions can yield an increase in warming in the near term by up to 50%, whereas lower-end emissions decrease warming impacts by at least 70%. For green (renewable-based electrolysis) hydrogen pathways, upper-end hydrogen emissions can reduce climate benefits in the near term by up to 25%. We also consider renewable electricity availability for green hydrogen and show that if it is not additional to what is needed to decarbonize the electric grid, there may be more warming than that seen with fossil fuel alternatives over all time scales. Assessments of hydrogen's climate impacts should include the aforementioned factors if hydrogen is to be an effective decarbonization tool.

Stationarity and cycles in the energy consumption in the United States.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: analyzing stationarity of energy consumption by source in the United States and studying their cycles and pairwise synchronization. We study a panel of nine time series of monthly energy consumption for the period 1973-2022. Four of the series (namely coal, natural gas, petroleum, and nuclear electric power consumption) are non-renewables, whereas the remaining ones (hydroelectric power, geothermal, biomass, solar, and wind energy consumption) are renewable energy sources. We employ a nonparametric, panel stationarity testing approach. The results indicate that most of the series may be trend-stationarity, with nuclear and geothermal energy consumption being the only exceptions. Additionally, a study on potential cycles in the series of energy consumption by source is carried out, and subsequently we analyze pairwise concordance between states of different energy sources and between states of energy sources and the business cycle. Significant correlations are detected in the latter analysis, which are positive in the case of fossil fuel sources and negative for two renewable sources, namely geothermal and biomass energy consumption.

Human health risk assessment of volatile organic compounds in oil-based drill cuttings of shale gas.

Waste oil-based drill cuttings contain dioxins and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which have the potential to cause serious health effects in humans. Therefore, this paper took oil-based drill cuttings (OBDCs) as the research object and carried out the testing of VOCs and dioxins content by using GC-MS and HRGCS-HRMS and comprehensively evaluated the content, composition and distribution pattern of VOCs and dioxins and the risk to human health posed by the two pollutants in OBDCs. The results showed that the VOCs did not exceed the emission limits in ESPPI (GB 31571-2015), but it is vital to recognise that 1,2-dichloropropane has the potential to cause cancer risk, with soil and groundwater risk control values of 662.95 mg·kg-1 and 0.066 mg·kg-1, respectively. Benzene, 1,2-dichloropropane and 8 other VOCs pose a non-carcinogenic risk to humans. The levels of polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) exceeded those of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), which accounted for 95.76 percent of the total PCDD/Fs, 2,3,4,7,8-P5CDF (56.00%), 2,3,7,8-T4CDF (9.20%), 1,2,3,6,7,8-H6CDF (8.80%) and 1,2,3,7,8-P5CDF (8.00%) were the main contributing monomers. The findings of the assessment on exposure risk indicate that there is a respiratory risk to oil-based drill cuttings dioxins for adults and children exceeded the World Health Organisation (WHO) acceptable daily intake (ADI) (1-4 pgTEQ/kg/d). Finally, three aspects of solid waste pre-treatment prior to incineration, the incineration process and post incineration were used to reduce the environmental and human health risks from dioxins.

Quantifying flare combustion efficiency using an imaging Fourier transform spectrometer.

Mid-wavelength infrared (MWIR) imaging Fourier transform spectrometers (IFTSs) are a promising technology for measuring flare combustion efficiency (CE) and destruction removal efficiency (DRE). These devices generate spectrally resolved intensity images of the flare plume, which may then be used to infer column densities of relevant species along each pixel line-of-sight. In parallel, a 2D projected velocity field may be inferred from the apparent motion of flow features between successive images. Finally, the column densities and velocity field are combined to estimate the mass flow rates for the species needed to calculate the CE or DRE. Since the MWIR IFTS can measure key carbon-containing species in the flare plume, it is possible to measure CE without knowing the fuel flow rate, which is important for fenceline measurements. This work demonstrates this approach on a laboratory heated vent, and then deploys the technique on two working flares: a combustor burning natural gas at a known rate, and a steam-assisted flare at a petrochemical refinery. Analysis of the IFTS data highlights the potential of this approach, but also areas for future development to transform this approach into a reliable technique for quantifying flare emissions.Implications: Our research is motivated by the need to assess hydrocarbon emissions from flaring, which is a critical problem of global significance. For example, recent studies have shown that methane destruction efficiency of flaring from upstream oil may be significantly lower than the commonly assumed figure of 98%; work by Plant et al. , in particular, suggest that this discrepancy amounts to CO2 emissions from 2 to 8 million automobiles annually, considering the US alone. Similarly, the international energy agency (IEA) estimates a global flare efficiency of 92%, which translates in 8 million tons of CH4 emitted by flares in 2020. Highlighted by these studies and supported by the World Bank initiatives toward zero routine flaring emissions, there is an urgent need for oil and gas industry to assess their flare methane emission, and overall hydrocarbon emissions. At the very least, it is critical to identify problematic flare operating conditions and means to mitigate flare emissions. Focusing on remote quantification of plume species, the measurement technique and quantification method presented in this paper is a considerable step forward in that direction by computing combustion efficiency and key components for destruction efficiency.

Cleaning up while Changing Gears: The Role of Battery Design, Fossil Fuel Power Plants, and Vehicle Policy for Reducing Emissions in the Transition to Electric Vehicles.

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce air emissions when charged with clean power, but prior work estimated that in 2010, PEVs produced 2 to 3 times the consequential air emission externalities of gasoline vehicles in PJM (the largest US regional transmission operator, serving 65 million people) due largely to increased generation from coal-fired power plants to charge the vehicles. We investigate how this situation has changed since 2010, where we are now, and what the largest levers are for reducing PEV consequential life cycle emission externalities in the near future. We estimate that PEV emission externalities have dropped by 17% to 18% in PJM as natural gas replaced coal, but they will remain comparable to gasoline vehicle externalities in base case trajectories through at least 2035. Increased wind and solar power capacity is critical to achieving deep decarbonization in the long run, but through 2035 we estimate that it will primarily shift which fossil generators operate on the margin at times when PEVs charge and can even increase consequential PEV charging emissions in the near term. We find that the largest levers for reducing PEV emissions over the next decade are (1) shifting away from nickel-based batteries to lithium iron phosphate, (2) reducing emissions from fossil generators, and (3) revising vehicle fleet emission standards. While our numerical estimates are regionally specific, key findings apply to most power systems today, in which renewable generators typically produce as much output as possible, regardless of the load, while dispatchable fossil fuel generators respond to the changes in load.